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Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 07/04/2009, by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd

On Tuesday, the KLCI closed mixed, forming a Doji candlestick while losing 3.93 points to 919.84 points. This suggests that the KLCI is likely to consolidate in the near term. As indicated by A, the 905 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still an important support for the KLCI while the resistance is at 937 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, the T1 uptrend line is still the uptrend dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding 13%, suggesting the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI, and the target is usually the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 8.3% on Tuesday, but volume is still clearly above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the current market is still actively participated, thus the market sentiment is still positive. If the KLCI should consolidate, it is normal to see more decline in volume as investors would choose to stay on the sideline while the KLCI consolidate.

As circled at C, the Stochastic fell below 90% by margin, suggesting a beginning of a technical correction or a consolidation. However, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

Despite a sign of consolidation, the Bollinger Bands Width has not yet contracted. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would suggests that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

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