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Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 16/03/2009, by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width continue its contraction, and therefore, the KLCI's volatility is also reduced, closing the day 2.57 points lower. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is likely to consolidate from now, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still the first target of the KLCI.

Support for the KLCI is still at 833 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are at the 853 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.5% on Monday, with volume further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is indeed low. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should consolidate, the lower volume is considered normal. However, if the KLCI should attempt to break the Bollinger Middle Band, volume has to increase and stay above the 40-day VMA level in order to confirm the rally.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram continue to rise, forming a rounding bottom. This suggests a technical rebound signal for the KLCI, or even a chance for the KLCI to regain some strength. As long as the histogram is still rising, the KLCI is likely to improve until the histogram should form another rounding top.

In conclusion, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggests that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new direction shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

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