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Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 18/07/2008, by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd

The KLCI weighted down by the plantation stocks on Friday, and marked a 19 months new low. As indicated by A, the KLCI support now is at 1100 level, and the resistance is at 1150 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement line.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 7%, and the KLCI was below the Bollinger Middle Band , and therefore, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width suggested an increase of downside volatility of the KLCI, thus the KLCI ended lower. Unless the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, or the downside movement is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume remain below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market participation is still weak. It is important to point out that to confirm a true rally of the KLCI, volume must be higher than the 40-day VMA level. However, the KLCI does not need to have the volume to stay above the 40-day VMA level to confirm the downtrend.

As circled at C, WinChart RSI is still staying below the 30% level, which is the mid term bearish region. This suggests that the overall market sentiment for the mid term is weak. If the WinChart RSI should break above the 30% level, it would enter a mid term neutral region. As for mid term bullish signal, the WinChart RSI needs to break and maintain above the 70% level.

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